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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

what is this i just downloaded (youtube code?)

so this is kinda a wierd story. I was planning to restart my computer. (cant remember why) I spend most of my time watching youtube videos so i had alot of tabs open. So i was watching the videos then deleting the tab but not opening new tabs. So i was down 2 i think 1 it was a pretty long video so i tried to open a youtube home page tab just to look while i listened to the video. And this is a short exerp of what i got.





YouTube











submitted by inhuman7773 to techsupport [link] [comments]

Week 48; Experts in authoritarianism advise to keep a list of things subtly changing around you, so you’ll remember.

The humanitarian crisis in Puerto Rico worsened with the inadequate response by the federal government. Amid criticism, Trump threatened to pull out, but later backed off. Although the death count officially stands at 45, reporting revealed possibly hundreds more preventable deaths related to the Hurricane Maria.
Trump remains silent on both California’s deadliest wildfires and the deadliest combat incident since he took office. He continues to focus on undoing Obama’s legacy, piece-by-piece. The Mueller investigation hit Trump’s inner-circle, and social media’s role in aiding Russia continues to unfold.
  1. On Saturday night, Richard Spencer led another white supremacist torch-lit rally at University of Virginia. The rally lasted 10 minutes and 40-50 people attended. Spencer vowed, “we will keep coming back.”
  2. On Sunday, Trump attacked former ally Sen. Bob Corker in a series of incendiary tweets, saying “Corker “begged” me to endorse him for re-election” and “wanted to be Secretary of State.” Trump claimed to have said no to both.
  3. Corker responded, tweeting it’s a shame the WH has become an “adult day care center,” and that someone “missed their shift this morning.”
  4. On Sunday, Pence left a Colts game after a protest during the national anthem. Pence later issued a full statement opposing the protests. The Colts were playing the 49ers, a team known to protest.
  5. Before the game, Pence tweeted a photo of him and the Second Lady wearing Colts gear. The photo was one he originally tweeted in 2014.
  6. Shortly after, Trump tweeted he had asked Pence to leave the game “if any players kneeled,” and said he was proud of Pence and the Second Lady.
  7. The pool of journalists covering Pence were not allowed into the stadium, and were told, “there may be an early departure from the game.” ABC estimated Pence’s flight cost taxpayers nearly $250k.
  8. Bowing to pressure from Trump, the Cowboys’ Jerry Jones, after kneeling with players in week 3 of the season, changed course saying any player who “disrespects the flag” by kneeling will not be allowed to play.
  9. On Tuesday, Trump threatened the NFL over protests saying the league is “getting massive tax breaks” and the law should be changed. This claim is false: the NFL gave up its 501(c)(6) tax-exempt status in 2015.
  10. On Tuesday, bowing to pressure from Trump and fans, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who previously had said players had the right to voice their opinions, sided with owners opposed to letting players demonstrate.
  11. On Monday, Pence headlined a fundraiser in CA for Republicans including controversial, Kremlin-ally Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. Rohrabacher had a previously undisclosed meeting in Russia with Veselnitskaya described in Week 47.
  12. University of Wisconsin approved a policy which calls for suspending or expelling students who disrupt campus speeches and presentations. The policy mirrors Republican legislation passed by the state Assembly.
  13. On Columbus Day, unlike Obama, Trump celebrated the “arrival of Europeans,” but did not mention of the suffering of Native Americans.
  14. On Sunday, the Trump’s DHS allowed the Jones Act waiver, which helped speed relief to Puerto Rico, to expire. No explanation was given.
  15. Trump’s EPA announced it would repeal the Clean Power Plan, Obama’s signature policy to curb greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. The statement described the regulation as the “so-called Clean Power Plan.”
  16. On Friday, Trump addressed the Value Voters Summit hosted by the Family Research Council, which has been classified by SPLC as an anti-gay hate group. Trump is the first US leader to address the group.
  17. Reuters reported the Trump regime has been quietly cutting support for halfway houses for federal prisoners, severing contracts with as many as 16 facilities, necessitating some inmates stay behind bars longer.
  18. ABC reported the Treasury Dept’s inspector general is looking into allegations reported by BuzzFeed in Week 47 that agency officials have been illegally looking at private financial records of US citizens.
  19. A report compiled by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) at House and Senate Democrats’ request, found the Trump transition team ignored ethics officials and refused to cooperate with the GAO.
  20. Trump named Kathleen Hartnett White to the WH’s Council on Environmental Quality. Hartnett White, a climate science denier, once also said, “fossil fuels dissolved the economic justification for slavery.”
  21. In response to a filing by CREW, Trump’s DOJ told a court in DC that Trump can destroy records without judicial review, including tweets.
  22. Brian Brooks became the second candidate under consideration for deputy Treasury Secretary to withdraw from consideration. Mnuchin said he has no plans to fill the number two slot in his agency.
  23. WAPO reported at the Interior Dept, when Zinke enters the building a staffer takes the elevator to the seventh floor, climbs the stairs to the roof and puts up a special flag. The flag comes down when he leaves.
  24. On Wednesday, NBC reported Tillerson calling Trump a “moron” was provoked by Trump suggesting a tenfold increase in the US nuclear arsenal during a July 20 meeting with the high-ranking national security leaders.
  25. In response to the story which he called “Fake News,” Trump tweeted a threat to revoke the broadcasting licenses of “NBC and the Networks.”
  26. Later that afternoon, at a news conference, Trump again lashed out at the independent news media saying it’s “frankly disgusting the press is able to write whatever it wants to write.”
  27. In a statement Wednesday night, Republican Sen. Ben Sasse asked Trump if he was “recanting” his oath to protect the First Amendment.
  28. Indiana Republican lawmaker Jim Lucas drafted a bill that would require professional journalists to be licensed by state police.
  29. Under pressure to confirm Trump’s judicial nominees, McConnell will no longer allow “blue slips,” used by senators to deny a nominee from their state a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing and vote on confirmation.
  30. The Trump regime withdrew from United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), citing anti-Israel bias and a being in arrears on a $550 million payment. Israel remains part of UNESCO.
  31. NYT published an interview with Corker in which he said Trump is treating his office like a “reality show” with reckless threats at other country that could put our country “on the path to World War III.”
  32. Corker said he is concerned about Trump, and Trump’s behavior should concern “anyone who cares about our nation.” He added there is no ‘good cop, bad cop’ underway with Tillerson — Trump is undermining diplomacy.
  33. Corker said nearly all Senate Republican share his concerns: “the vast majority of our caucus understands what we’re dealing with here.”
  34. WAPO reported Trump is frustrated by his cabinet and that he is not getting enough credit for his handling of three hurricanes. Trump is lashing out and rupturing alliances with both Republicans and Democrats.
  35. One confidant said Trump is like a whistling teapot, saying when he does not blow off steam, he can turn into a pressure cooker and explode: “I think we are in pressure cooker territory.”
  36. Politico quoted 10 sources current and former WH aides who employed strategies like delays and distractions as “guardrails” in trying to manage Trump’s impulsivity.
  37. Vanity Fair reported sources say Trump is “unstable,” “losing a step,” and “unraveling.” They say the WH is in crisis as advisers struggle to contain Trump who is increasingly unfocused and consumed by dark moods.
  38. Trump allegedly told his former bodyguard Schiller, “I hate everyone in the White House!” Kelly is allegedly miserable in the job, and is staying on in a sense of duty and to keep Trump from making disastrous decisions.
  39. One former official speculated Kelly and Mattis have discussed what they would do if Trump ordered a nuclear strike — “would they tackle him?”
  40. According to sources, Bannon said the risk to Trump’s presidency wasn’t impeachment, but the 25th Amendment. Bannon thinks Trump has only a 30% chance of making it the full term.
  41. In a column “What Bob Corker Sees in Trump,” conservative columnist Peggy Noonan urged Republicans they have a duty to speak on the record about what they see happening with Trump.
  42. On Thursday, at a signing ceremony for his health care executive order, Trump nearly walked out of the room without signing the order. Pence pulled him back in.
  43. On Tuesday, Trump said in an interview with Forbes that he could beat Tillerson in an IQ test. Trump met with Tillerson later that day at the WH.
  44. On Friday, Corker called out Trump for his effort to disempower Tillerson saying: “You cannot publicly castrate your own secretary of state without giving yourself that binary choice.”
  45. CNN’s Fareed Zakaria said, “It’s very clear now that we essentially have no diplomacy going on in the United States,” adding the way Trump has treated Tillerson is “the most dramatic example of it.”
  46. On CBS’s 60 Minutes, Parscale claimed he fine-tuned ads on Facebook to directly reach voters with the exact messages they cared most about. He also claimed he handpicked Republican Facebook employees to help.
  47. Daily Beast reported the Kremlin recruited two black video bloggers, Williams and Kalvin Johnson, to produce incendiary YouTube videos calling Hillary a racist. The videos were spread on social media platforms.
  48. WAPO reported Google has uncovered evidence about $100k of ads purchased by Russian agents to spread disinformation on across the company’s many products, including YouTube, during the 2016 election.
  49. Google said the ads do not appear to be from the same Kremlin-linked troll farm that bought ads on Facebook. Some ads touted Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Jill Stein, while others aimed to fan the flames of divisive issues.
  50. Rep. Devin Nunes, who recused himself as Chair of the House Intel Committee’s Russia probe, unilaterally signed off on subpoenas to Fusion GPS, the research firm that produced the Steele dossier. Democrats were not consulted.
  51. Reuters reported Chuck Grassley, the Republican chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is also taking steps to discredit the dossier according to Democrats on the committee.
  52. Carter Page told the Senate Intel Committee that he will not cooperate with any requests to appear before the panel on Russia, and will plead the Fifth.
  53. Daily Beast reported the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence is looking at Cambridge Analytica’s work from the Trump campaign as part of its Russian probe.
  54. Cambridge Analytica, which has ownership ties to the Mercers and Bannon, was brought in to help the campaign by Kushner. The company is also under investigation in the UK watchdog for its role in Brexit.
  55. NYT reported Israel caught Kaspersky Lab working with the Russian government to search the world for US secrets, using Kaspersky software to scan for classified words. Kaspersky software is used by 400 million people.
  56. WSJ reported that Russia’s use of the Kaspersky program to spy on the US is broader and more pervasive than the operation against one individual in Week 47. Trump continues to deny Russian meddling in the US election.
  57. Politico reported as part their posture to cooperate, Trump’s attorneys may offer Mueller a meeting with Trump. If Mueller doesn’t ask by Thanksgiving, attorneys may force the issue by volunteering his time.
  58. Legal experts were surprised by Trump’s lawyers strategy noting Trump would be speaking under oath and he routinely distorts facts, and that Trump would be interviewed in connection with a criminal investigation.
  59. CNN reported Russian operatives used YouTube, Tumblr, and even Pokémon Go as part of their effort to interfere in the election, using a campaign titled “Don’t Shoot Us” to spread a divisive message.
  60. NBC reported Manafort had a previously undisclosed $26 million loan from Deripaska through a series of transactions. It is unclear if the $26 million is a loan or an indirect payment from the Russian oligarch.
  61. The loan brings the total financial relationship between Manafort and Deripaska to $60 million over the past decade, according to financial documents filed in Cyprus and the Cayman Islands.
  62. Manafort’s spokesman, Jason Maloni, initially responded to NBC with a statement including: “Mr. Manafort is not indebted to former clients today, nor was he at the time he began working for the Trump campaign.”
  63. Maloni’s statement was later revised and that sentence was removed. Both Manafort and Maloni have received subpoenas to supply documents and testimony in the Mueller probe.
  64. Yahoo reported Andrew Feinberg, former correspondent for Sputnik, provided a guide and emails to FBI investigators looking into possible violations of the law which requires agents of foreign nations to register with the DOJ.
  65. Further, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence is investigating RT and Sputnik as possible parts of the Russian state-run propaganda machine in the broader probe into Russia’s election meddling.
  66. On Friday, Mueller’s team interviewed Trump’s former chief of staff, Priebus. Priebus’ lawyer said he voluntarily met with investigators and “was happy to answer all of their questions.”
  67. Priebus was present during Trump’s efforts to limit the Russia probe, and for discussions that led to the firing of Comey. He was also asked to leave the Oval Office before the infamous Trump-Comey conversation.
  68. Politico reported Twitter deleted tweets and other user data of potentially irreplaceable value to investigators in the Russia probe.
  69. Federal investigators believe Twitter was one of Russia’s most potent weapons. Bots and fake accounts launched recurring waves of pro-Trump, anti-Clinton story lines that were either false or greatly exaggerated.
  70. AP reported Twitter has turned over 201 accounts linked to Russian attempts at influencing the 2016 election to Senate investigators. It is unclear if the posts associated with these accounts have been deleted.
  71. CNN reported an attorney for Roger Stone said he has complied with the House Intel Committee request to provide the identity of his intermediary to WikiLeaks’ Assange.
  72. WSJ reported Congressional investigators are homing in on connections between the Trump campaign, and Facebook, and Twitter. Digital director Parscale was paid $88 million during the campaign, the highest paid vendor.
  73. Every vendor that worked with Parscale on the Trump campaign signed a nondisclosure agreement, and there are no federal disclosure requirements for online ads.
  74. Both Congress and Mueller are investigating the role activity on Facebook and Twitter played in the 2016 election, and whether the Russian social-media activity was in any connected to the Trump campaign.
  75. A Morning Consult poll found Trump’s approval has fallen in every state since he took office. The swings were as high as 30 percentage points in blue-states IL and CA, to 11 points in red-state LA.
  76. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s popularity is eroding in small towns and rural communities: in September 47 approve/47 disapprove, down from 55/39 in his first four weeks in office.
  77. WAPO reported as of October 10, Trump’s first 263 days in office, he has made 1,318 false or misleading claims.
  78. The Brookings Institute released a 108-page report which concluded Trump “likely obstructed justice” in his firing of Comey. If Mueller agrees, there are legitimate articles of impeachment that could be drawn up.
  79. In a letter to Mattis, over 100 Democrats are demanding proof that Trump did indeed consult with the Pentagon as he claimed in a tweet, prior to announcing his ban of transgender individuals from military service.
  80. A Kaiser Foundation poll found 62% of Americans say Puerto Ricans aren’t getting the help they need. 76% were aware Puerto Ricans are US citizens.
  81. On Thursday, in a series of tweets, Trump threatened to abandon Puerto Rico’s recovery effort, blaming the island for its infrastructure problems and saying and relief workers would not stay “in P.R. forever.”
  82. The tweets follow harsh criticism from Puerto Rico of the Trump regime’s response to Hurricane Maria. One Puerto Rican said, “He doesn’t think of us as Americans.”
  83. Trump also quoted a Sharyl Attkisson, a television journalist with Sinclair Broadcasting, in saying that while Puerto Rico survived Hurricane Maria, now “a financial crisis looms largely of their own making.”
  84. Later Thursday, the WH issued a statement committing “the full force of the U.S. government” for now, but adding “successful recoveries do not last forever.”
  85. At a House Energy and Commerce hearing about efforts to rebuild the island’s energy grid, Sec. Rick Perry referred to Puerto Rico as a country.
  86. Next day, Trump referred to the Virgin Islands’ governor as a president.
  87. VOX reported although the official death count in Puerto Rico is 45, they found 81 death linked to Hurricane Maria, as well as 450 more reported deaths, most of causes still unknown, and 69 still missing.
  88. Puerto Rico’s governor said four deaths are being investigated as cases of leptospirosis, a disease spread by animals’ urine through contaminated water. A total of ten people have come down with the disease.
  89. Rachel Maddow reported a doctor resigned from the disaster response team in Puerto Rico after seeing medical workers getting manicures and pedicures from residents of the island in medical triage tents.
  90. NYT reported on Puerto Rico’s health care is in dire condition, and continues to suffer from mismanagement. The US Comfort ship with 800 medical personnel which can serve 250, has seen 82 patients in six days.
  91. CNN reported Puerto Ricans are drinking water from a hazardous-waste site, having no other options for water.
  92. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found just 32% of registered voters think the federal government has done enough to help Puerto Rico.
  93. Bloomberg revealed one of its reporters was inadvertently put on the Pentagon’s internal email list which detailed how to spin Hurricane Maria to convince the public that the government response was going well.
  94. On Thursday, Trump also signed an executive order ending Obamacare subsidies for the poor. Not paying the subsidies could boost premiums for millions and send the health insurance exchanges into turmoil.
  95. NPR estimated consumers who earn 400% of the federal poverty level — $48k for individuals or $98.4k for a family of four — will see their the cost of their plans rise by, on average, 20% nationwide.
  96. Doctors, hospitals, insurers, state insurance commissioners and patient advocates denounced Trump’s move. Trump actions puts pressure on Congress to protect consumers from soaring premiums.
  97. WSJ reported if Congress doesn’t succeed, WH aides said Trump “will claim victory” for ending the Iran deal, cutting billions in payments to health insurers, and deporting hundreds of thousands of immigrants.
  98. On Friday, a coalition of attorneys general from 18 states and DC filed a lawsuit to block Trump’s halt to subsidy payments under Obamacare.
  99. NYT reported as of Friday, Trump has taken 12 actions which could weaken Obamacare and curtail enrollment, including spreading negative news releases and posting infographics criticizing the health law.
  100. On Saturday, Trump boasted on Twitter that health insurance companies’ stocks “plunged yesterday” after his steps to dismantle Obamacare.
  101. A Kaiser Health poll found 71% of Americans say the Trump regime should work to improve Obamacare, while just 21% say make it fail.
  102. On Friday, Trump slammed Iran as a “menace” and called for “decertification” of the nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), saying Iran is “not living up to the spirit of the deal.”
  103. Trump sent the deal back to Congress with a 60-day window to address its “many serious flaws” or see it “terminated.”
  104. Top officials on Trump’s national security team, including Mattis and Tillerson, said Iran has technically complied with its restrictions. The International Atomic Energy Association also confirmed compliance.
  105. Daily Beast reported while McMaster also wanted to save the Iran Deal, Trump consulted Fox News’ Sean Hannity and former UN Ambassador John Bolton, two neoconservatives who pushed for decertification.
  106. The leaders of Britain, Germany and France declared their commitment to stand by JCPoA. They deal was the culmination of 16 years of diplomacy.
  107. After being added to Trump’s travel ban, Chad pulled its troops from the fight against Boko Haram in Niger. US officials had warned Trump his decision would have major consequences for the fight against terrorism.
  108. California’s deadliest wildfires charred more than 221,754 acres of land in Northern CA, and left at least 35 dead and hundreds more missing. Trump has yet to publicly comment or tweet about the wildfires.
  109. Nor has Trump publicly commented on the deadliest combat incident since he took office, which took place in Niger last Saturday while Trump was golfing. The ambush by ISIS left four soldiers dead and two wounded.
  110. As the week ended, 24 days after Hurricane Maria, just 64% of Puerto Ricans had access to drinking water, and only 14.6% had electricity.
  111. Trump spent his fourth weekend since Hurricane Maria golfing. On Saturday, he visited Trump National Golf Club in VA, his 72nd day of golf since taking office.
submitted by 1000000students to TheConstitution [link] [comments]

A beginner's guide to new Talon

Before starting, a few premises
I'm not the best Talon player around: I'm not constant while playing LoL; last time I ranked I ended up in Silver 3 or something; also, I do not have many runes, leading to play the game with only 2 rune pages (with other 2 extremely situational)
However, in terms of loyalty, I think I qualify: Talon was my very first champion bought and the very first I mained; he's the one with which I started moving inside the ARTS world (LoL, Dota 2, Vainglory, ecc.); more importantly, he's also the only one that brings me back to this game everytime he gets changed
Now, in the past games, I noticed that I met only a single person trying to play him. Big problem is that he did not know how to play him: he seems easy and straight-forward, but he's actually difficult to play properly and a lot more difficult to master (or so I think). This leads to this guide
I searched around and found out that most of his guides are still outdated. The ones that try to take on his remade gameplay are either vague or plainly wrong. Because of this, I decided to act
The text I'm writing is supposed to hold most of my experience with him. I hope that this helps not only people trying to get started with him, but also those that want to actually write about him, be it in a wiki, on the boards or on their own guide
That said, I hope you enjoy this. Comment and critics are highly welcomed, as they will bto hhelp me and this guide :)
PS
This is a guide to assassin Talon, not bruiser
PPS
This will be about laner Talon, not Jungler
HISTORY
Before starting with the gameplay, I want to write a little about how he changed from what he was before to what he is now
-From the start, he has always been a strong champion: a feast-or-famine midlaner with a low early, but a powerful lvl-6 powerspike; if he could get ahead, he was unstoppable, otherwise he didn't help his team too much if not by splitpushing. Most of the patches that came out nerfed him in one way or another (either this, or they were bugfixes). His spot among players can be resumed in what is known as the Talon effect. With this, Rito usually refers to a champion that is almost only played by those who main him. Because of this, he/she has a low popularity, but a high winrate. About his skillset, it was basically the same before the rework, except his E. This is an important point
-A major milestone in Talon's history is patch 4.17. Before this patch, Talon's E used to silence the target for 1 second. This was extremely strong on Talon, since a good Talon player could 100-0 a target before the silence was over. The main reason he wasn't popular was his low early game, since he could be easily bullied pre-6 (at 6, however, he had an extremely strong powerspike, resulting in him insta-gibbing most opponents) and his heavy all-ins, making it difficult to survive with him agter your burst. When he was picked on the professional scene, Rito realized his strength and nerfed him, chaning the silence into the strange root-slow he had. At first, most Talon players argued about the change, but after a bit of time they started doing well with him again
-After the nerf, Talon fell under the radar, until the coming of Duskblade. Because of this item (which had an effect similar to Zed's R), many people started picking Talon, rising his popularity. Because of this, Rito noticed another issue with Talon: His R cd was too short, allowing him to all-in his opponents almost indefenitely. In patch 6.5, he got nerfed again, having his ult cd raised. Despite this, people still managed to play him well
-We come now at the rework added in the preseason patch (patch 6.22), which brings us to what he is now
PRO/CONTRO
Before starting, it is important to know what makes Talon... Talon. After the rework, most players didn't know how to play him again, as his style changed. After a lot of games (and losses, expecially losses), I made this chart
I wrote this on another thread. I'm merely pasting it here
PRO
-High early burst damage in lane: a single well-executed combo can drop most opponents to 2-3/4 of their hp at lvl 2
-Can easily go toe to toe with melee champions because of his damage output
-Ultimate gives you AoE dmg, huge speed and invisibility, making it an extremely useful spell for most situations
-Highly mobile in jungle, allowing you to both catch enemies and/or flee from them with ease
-Can dish out good amount of AoE dmg in teamfights while focusing a single target
-Great roamer: with enough items, you can easily farm a wave with a single W + AA/Qs, which allows you to go into other lanes faster; also, you can gank from unexpected places
-His skillset works on the concept of hitting enemies multiple times, meaning that stack-based items are highly efficient on him (ex. Black Cleaver)
-Extremely difficult to stop once he gets ahead because of his burst, mobility and invisibility/speed (he does not snowball: he avalanches)
CONTRO
-His only form of CC is a slow, which is unreliable too (second W)
-Your burst relies a lot on passive, meaning that not hitting your skill sets you back heavily in a fight. This is further worsened by the 2nd W delay (since only this applies the slow)
-Your in-fight mobility skill is a forward dash, which makes you easy prey to most linear skillshots
-You need to be close to your enemy without using the Q-dash for you to get the Q-crit
-Early game, your ultimate has a long cooldown. Also, AoE dmg briefly reveals you, the damage this skill offers is a bit low unless you use it aggresively (losing the safety it provides though) and sometimes it may come off immediately if you use it in the middle of an autoattack
-Most ranged champs can give you a hard time in lane. Also, melee champs with some sort of sustain are difficult to deal as well
-While mobile, he relies heavily on positioning and timing (even in lane), without even taking accout of the walls cooldowns
-Binary-style engage and reliance on walls to engage/disengage makes it difficult for you to not get focused during a teamfight
-His Q counts as a spell now, meaning that you can't use it to take towers down anymore, weakening your split-pushing capabilities
-Needs to be ahead to work properly, as he has mediocre bases and high ratios on his skills, as well as a binary-like style of engage, meaning that he can be easily set behind (although he can still be useful with a Black Cleaver)
-The more the game goes on, the more difficult it gets for Talon to be relevant
RUNES
I want to add this point right now since it's the only point I won't talk about it, reason being I never paid any attention to runes while playing him. Sorry
MASTERIES
In my opinion, Talon must get his mastery choices from only the Ferocity/Cunning trees, reason being you cannot use Resolve ones on a champion that scales so hard on AD. Also, I do not want to suggest a single mastery choice: you can either go 18/12 or 12/18, depending on what you like most. The choices that I suggest for both pages are in bold type
FEROCITY
-Fury vs Sorcery
Talon plays as an AD caster who must kill his target as fast as possible. Attack speed easily loses his spot to Ability damage for this
-Fresh Blood vs Feast vs Expose Weakness
No reason to get EW at all, since most of the time you'll find yourself alone when killing. About the other 2, FB adds a it of burst, while F helps for lane sustain. If you feel good enough with your laning phase, get FB, otherwise F may be more helpful
-Bounty Hunter vs Double Edged Sword vs Battle Trance
I don't care what did your favourite youtuber tell you, BT on assassin Talon is useless. About the other 2, BH synergizes well with Talon playstyle, since you are meant for roaming. DES adds more dmg not reliant on kills at the cost of getting increased received dmg. In my opinion, BH is better, but if you feel ballsy enough, you can go DES
-Battering Blows vs Piercing Thoughts
You deal only physical damage. Enough said
-Warlord's Bloodlust vs Fervor of Battle vs Deathfire Touch
All 3 can be used by Talon. Main decision is about what you need most: WB gives you sustain; FB gives you more dmg on your AAs and you can easily stack it thanks to your skillset; DT may help you getting a kill thanks to its DoT. I'd suggest WB if you have trouble staying in lane, FB for enemies that force you into longer fights and DT for anything else
CUNNING
-Wanderer vs Savagery
You have enough mobility already. To sacrifice early farming for 3% more speed OUT OF COMBAT is not worth imo
-Runic Affinity vs Secret Stash vs Assassin
Talon is not a focused jungler, meaning he does not benefit from buffs as other junglers do. For the other 2, depends on your ability to play Talon: sustain vs damage. Choice is yours
-Merciless vs Meditation
While it's true that Talon suffers from mana problems, to sacrifice dmg so that I can have a bit of more mana in lane doesn't hold. It's better to learn how to manage your mana than to lose damage. This especially on Talon
-Greenfather's Gift vs Bandit vs Dangerous Game
GG is too situational and makes you lose that bit of restoration that may help you more in fights (DG). Also, Talon needs walls to be effective, not bushes
-Precision vs Intelligence
Both are good choices. It depends mostly on what you need. If you want to stack Lethality for Duskblade passive plus the movement speed it brings, go Pre. Instead, if you think you need more cd, go Int. I think most people choose Int., but I prefer Pre.
-Stormraider vs Thunderlord vs Windspeaker
Leaving Wind, which is for healers, it depends on what you need. Storm gives you more speed, which can be helpful when trading and/or chasing/positioning/escaping, while thunder gives you more burst. Basically, utility vs damage. You choose
ABILITIES
The section is made by 2 parts: one is about levelling order; the other is about their usage
Skill order
You generally want to prioritize W over Q, getting a point on R whenever possible and maxing E last. The main choice is about when getting the second point on W. Getting it at level 3 will leave you with only Q and W as available skills, but your W deals more damage. Getting it at level 4, instead, allows you to have all of your main skills available at lvl 3 (Q, W and E)
In my opinion, it depends on the enemy team. Against good junglers like Lee Sin and Shaco, you will be ganked at either level 2 or 3. While at level 2 you can't do much to escape, at level 3 you have E, giving you more possibilities to evade the gank. If you however get the second point of W at 3, it gets the same as at level 2. Because of this, it is better to focus first having all skils available at 3, then to start levelling them up. However, do remember that against other match-ups (junglers that cannot gank properly at early levels (ex. Warwick)) it can be fine to get second W at 3. The major point is about looking ahead on how the match will unfold
The other choice is about what to max first: Q or W. While it's true that a lower cd Q gives you more mobility and that W is unreliable, it is neverthless better to max W first, reason being it is your only ranged skill, which allows you both to play safe when necessary and to clear the minion wave, allowing you to push/roam effectively. The only situation where a Max-Q-first is good is when playing Top against certain melee champions
At the end of the day, it should look like this (in case of strong early enemy junglers)
W - Q - E - W - W - R - W - Q - W - Q - R - Q - Q - E - E - R - E - E
Or this (when per usual)
W - Q - W - E - W - R - W - Q - W - Q - R - Q - Q - E - E - R - E - E
Skill Usage
Passive
  • Main focus must be given on your passive: it holds a good amount of your damage and is capable of giving you first blood most of the time if played well (this if you can all-in the opponent at level 2 successfully)
  • Unlike champions like Ekko, your passive can be stacked on champions only by your abilities, while it can be activated only by autoattacks. Because of this, it is important to count the number of stacks your opponent has, so that you can activate the passive as soon as it is up, without wasting time (and abilities)
  • An important thing to remember is that AUTOATTACKING RESETS THE DURATION TIMER OF THE STACKS. Stacks last on an enemy for 3 seconds: if you autoattack him, the count starts again. This is important to remember for multiple situations/reasons, one of them being it is possible to proc your passive as soon as level 1 if you can manage the stacks on your opponent up until your W goes off cd
  • When the passive is activated, the opponent bleeds for 2 seconds, making it impossible to stack your passive again during that time. However, as soon as the bleed is over, you can stack it again on the same champions, meaning that with enough skill you can deal enormous amounts of damage on a single enemy
  • Passive is counted singularly for each enemy, meaning that you can stack it to full on multiple champions thanks to the AoE of your W and R
  • Remember that as with most other stack-based abilities, your opponent can see how many stacks he has, meaning that he'll play carefully once he gets closer to 3 stacks (or worse, he can bait you into a bad situation)
Q
  • Your most reliable skill for damage, passive stacking and mobility. Although it is important to have it up often, maxing it first instead of your unreliable W is actually worse
  • Depending on your target distance, the skill can be either a forward dash (when afar) or a high-damaging stab (when close). This makes positioning an essential skill for playing Talon well
  • Remember that the Q is considered a spell for both of its ways, meaning that alone it can't proc your passive (it will add a stack though). Can't stress enough how much important it is to remember that only autoattacks proc your passive
  • It is also an excellent farming tool thanks to its damage and cd refound/heal on kill. However, DO NOT OVERUSE IT: Talon suffers from having a low mana pool, meaning that you can easily found yourself without mana if you start abusing this skill in lane for farming
  • The close-Q is a critical strike. It is still considered a spell, meaning it won't proc effects based on critical strikes as per usual (lifesteal, Essence Reaver, ecc.). However, it CAN be affected by critical dmg modifiers like Infinity Edge, increasing its damage
  • The far-Q dash allows you to autoattack IMMEDIATELY AFTER the Q lands. This makes it easier to proc your passive if you were able to land both parts of W before
  • It is better to go, for most of the times, for the close-Q, since it brings a huge burst in your combo. However, do not be afraid to use your far-Q when in need
  • Both Qs can be used as an autoattack reset, meaning that it is possible to aa - Q - aa for a good amount of damage
  • It is possible to use the far-Q to dodge skillshots. However, this requires an enemy unit around that is not the one attacking, as otherwise you'd be dashing straight forward the enemy champion, getting the full skillshot in your face
W
  • The bread-and-butter skill: to succed with Talon, one must be able to use it effectively. It is highly recommended to play a custom game to get in touch with this skill
  • The easiest way to use this is as a farming tool: it has both good bases and ratios, meaning that if playing well it is possible to clear the casters' wave with a single cast
  • Outside of farming, it is your main poking tool, as well as an important source of both damage and passive stacks
  • The major issue with this skill is that ONLY THE SECOND PART OF IT SLOWS AND DEALS MORE DMG, meaning that most opponents can evade it with ease, costing you the fight
  • There are mainly 2 way to ensure that the second part hits: the first one is by using it up close; the other one is by using it when disengaging from an incoming enemy
  • When using it up close, it is better to use either by going on the enemy with a far-Q first or by using it when the enemy is at a distance equal to your W maximum range, so that once he's slowed you can catch up with him and hit him with a close-Q. The first one provides a faster yet less powerful burst, while the other the opposite
  • It is better to use the far-Q_W when outside laning phase and the W_close-Q when you either control the lane and the opponent tries to contest it, ambush an enemy from an unwarded bush, drop directly on him by using a wall or when you position yourself after your R near the enemy and you can use it to break the stealth (for these last 2 cases it is better to do a close-Q_W)
  • When disengaging, you can throw your W directly at them for an almost-certain second hit. This allows you to both escape (enemy is slowed) or to engage him by surprise and burst him down (since he has 2 passive stacks on him)
  • Remember that your W deals AoE dmg: try to always hit multiple units when using it, either in lane (minions + champions) or outside (multiple champions)
E
  • The main reason one would now like to pick this champion. It is a semi-flexible skill that allows Talon to reposition himself by flipping over a wall/structure
  • E works only on structures and has no other benefit than being a dash, meaning that when in lane you have essentially only 2 skills to rely over. It is important to understand this, since it forces you most of the time to hug walls
  • Using E will put the wall/structure from which you jumped in cd. This is easily noticable thanks to the colored outlines (red as usual, yellow at half of cd)
  • The wall cd envelopes the outlines of a structure starting from both the starting and landing point and spreading EVENLY FROM BOTH POINTS. This means that if you use it on the farthest point of the structure (instead of the middle), it is possible to reduce the wall-cd-outline length, leaving you more available points
  • For the E to be used, you only need your starting point available. This allows you to flip over the same structure twice AS LONG AS YOU HAVE A BIT OF AVAILABLE WALL. Basically, if you have a structure almost completely red, you can still hop over it by jumping from the available point
  • It is important to remember that while the skill has a base cd of 2 seconds, walls' cd start from 160 secs. Do not abuse your E, as you might cut future possible kills/escapes
  • Putting points on E will not reduce the cd of the ability. It will, however, reduce the walls' cd, up to a base minimum of 60 secs
  • Cooldown reduction affects both the base ability cd and the walls' cd, meaning that at 40% cdr the skill has a 1.2 cd with a walls' cd going from 96 to 36 secs (depending on rank). Because of this, you always want to max E last
  • It is possible to use E on walls/structures made by other champions. However, THE WALLS' CD APPLIES TO THE CHAMPION SKILL, NOT TO THE SINGULAR STRUCTURE. To put it bluntly, if you're against Anivia, you can hop over her wall. However, if the wall is down and after a few seconds she remakes it, you cannot use your E again on it, since the wall is on cd
  • Remember that while the animation is a flip, the skill counts as a dash, meaning that you can be targetted by abilities as per usual during the animation
  • E's speed is affected by your movement speed, meaning that strong slows (Nasus' W) can easily hinder your mobility neverthless
  • Please, never forget this: USING E ENDS YOUR ULT!
R
  • Strong utility/AoE/burst skill with mediocre bases and good ratios. However, do not expect to be able to use it at its maximum potential most of the time
  • When using it, you turn invisible, gain movement speed and damage nearby units. Reactivating the skill converges the blades on you, ending both the invisibility and the speed boost
  • Enemies can be hit by multiple blades, but there is no multiple damage, nor multiple stacks added (all blades count as a single source, divided only by waves (2))
  • Ending the ult with a basic attack or Q will converge all blades on the target, ensuring that he'll be hit by your second wave
  • Your ultimate allows you to reposition yourself quite easily thanks to its speed boost. Because of this, it is an exceptionally good escape skill. Remember however that at the end of it, the blades wil lconverge on you, giving away your position
  • When in fight, it allows to reposition yourself incredibly fast, allowing for some outplaying potential thanks to its added stealth
  • Most of the time, however, you'll have to use this skill offensively (which is, ending it as soon as possible by attacking the target), as without it your burst is not that great (unless you're doing very well)
  • The stealth counts as invisibility, meaning that you can be seen only by enemy turrets. However, do remember that taking damage while invisible reveals you briefly
  • While using E immidiately ends your ult, using R during E's flip will not, making it a good combo for engaging on targets
  • Be careful when using Q and R together: as of now, using far-Q will automatically issue an autoattack due to a bug, which means that if you use R right after your Q, the autoattack WILL END YOUR ULTIMATE ASAP, leaving you in a bad spot most of the times
ITEMS
Before seeing all of them, it is important to understand what Talon needs
As an AD-caster champion, he benefits mostly from AD and cooldown reduction. Also, because of his roaming capabilities, strong burst and overall-nice bases, he benefits in both ways by getting lethality/armor pen, since the items that provide it also give him more movement speed. Lastly, since he deals damage on multiple instances, stack-based items are good on him as well
Longsword
There is a reason why there are a lot of jokes about it between talon mains. This item is the major staple in your build, as from it you build most of your other items. Because of this, it is always better to start with a Longsword and 3 potions than with a Doran's Blade and 1 potion. Besides the item build paths, it gives you early AD, which both scales with your skills and helps your farming
Corrupting Potion
On old Talon, this item was rarely seen, as good Talon players can easily manage their mana in lane and avoid poke from the opponent. As of now, it is actually a good choice, especially against ranged opponent. The reasons to pick it are multiple: gives you both health and mana; it refills everytime you go back; when using it, you gain a small DoT that may help you while poking or engaging. Its major drawback is that building the next item may be slower. It has both its pros and its contros
Boots
Boots are always a mandatory choice, especially against champions with skillshots and/or when in need to roam a lot. About a Boots start with 4 potions, I'd reccomend it only against champions heavily reliant on spammable skillshots and difficult to engage on (Syndra, Ziggs, Xerath, ecc.). Remember, however, that getting boots first you lose both early farming power (Longsword) and no-cost potions (Corrupting Potion)
Tier 2 Boots
Talon benefits mostly from boots that either make him go faster for better roaming (Mobility, Swiftness) or that give cdr (Ionian). Mobility is usually your main choice, as Talon needs to roam alot to mantain his lead. Also, building lethality/armor pen gives you momvement speed out of combat, meaning that your roaming speed increases the more lethality items you buy. About the other 2, I'd get Swiftness early if they have mobile champions or lots of slows, otherwise I'd just go for Ionians. Later, if you implement another cdr item in your build (after Black Cleaver and Yoomuu), you can sell Ionias for Swiftness. Remember however that Mercury Treads and Ninja Tabi can be good choices depending on the situation/state of the match, since it is difficult for you to not get focused while assassinating
Pickaxe
While more gold-efficient than Longswords, I'd suggest getting it only later. The reason is that it builds on items that either you won't need now or never (Death's Dance, Last Whisper) or that you must finish only at the very late game (Ravenous Hydra). Getting 2 Longswords instead is better, as you can then build them for better early items (Warhammer, Dirk, Tiamat)
Vampiric Scepter
Frankly, it is not the best choice of Talon for multiple reasons: you do not engage in long fights; Q heals you already; getting 2 Longswords instead helps more, since you can build them into core items sooner. However, it can be a good choice when you get harassed/need to duel the laner a lot and you cannot roam too much (enemy playing safe, no pushed lanes, ecc.). About its building path, you can use it only for 3 items: Ravenous Hydra (always built LAST), Mercurial Scimitar (Against CC-heavy compositions) and Death's Dance
WarhammeDirk
What you will usually buy the most. They build both from 2 Longswords and cost the same, meaning that the only choice you have to do is between cdr or lethality/out-of-combat mov. speed. Remember that together they are used for Yoomuu and that, while from one side Warhammer allows bulding for safer and useful items (Death's Dance, Black Cleaver, Maw of Maltorius), Dirk is used for more assassin-like items (Duskblade, Edge of Night)
Tiamat
Used to be the main Talon item, right below Yoomuu. It gives AD, hp regeneration and the Cleave, allowing both to farm waves fast and add more burst to your combos. As of now, however, I see it as a niche item: W deals more dmg than before, allowing to farm the wave quickly; also, you do not have a way to keep the target in one place (if not with 2nd-part W), meaning that you can easily miss the Cleave and interrupt your combo; lastly, it has poor stats outside of its Cleave, which you may not need. This does not mean that it is useless, as it can be an excellent choice as a wave-clear item when against champions against which you cannot lane no matter what, while also increasing your AoE dmg during fights. By the way, if you pick it, remember that YOU NEVER, EVER UPGRADE IT TO RAVENOUS HYDRA IF NOT AS YOUR LAST ITEM
Phage
A good item. It is usually taken when building Black Cleaver, buliding with Warhammer. It is a considerable choice when having trouble in the early game or when you want to play aggressively against slippery targets (by killing a minion you get bonus mov. speed that helps you engage)
Hexdrinker
Hexdrinker is what you usually look into when going against AP champions with a burst difficult to avoid. It can easily give you the edge in early fights, as the shield prevents most executions. Remember that when you upgrade it to Maw of Malmortius you reset the shield's cd. However, do remember that it does not build into Edge of Night (you can consider this the safer version of Edge)
Quicksilver Sash
If Hexdrinker is for when you need to tank magic burst, Quicksilver is for when enemy has a lot of hard CC, especially champions with suppression (Malzahar, Warwick...). As an early item, it doesn't give you any AD, which may hurt you more than getting CCed. In the mid-late game, however, it can be a good choice, depending on how much of a threat you are to them. Most importantly, IT DOES NOT WORK FOR AIRBORNE, meaning that if you actually bought it to counter Yasuo, you deserve to get stomped without mercy
Last Whisper
Gives Bonus armor penetration, meaning that you'll need it only later in the game. However, since most of the time you'll be killing squishies, you won't need it (since you'll have Black Cleaver and lethality), unless the enemy team is tanky as fuck
B.F. Sword
An extremely useful pick if bought early no matter of your starting items (Longsword/Boots/Corrupting Potion), it gives you a lot of AD while also buliding into Duskblade. If you managed to get a lead when buying it, you have good chances to start snowballing hard. When going back for the first time, if you can buy it as your first item, it is better to pick it, since the other items can be bought slowly by stacking Longswords (unless you think you might need something else more)
After this, we can now see the main finished items, the ones you should be aiming for most of (if not all) the times
Yoomuu's Ghostblade
One of the most important items for Talon (if not the most). Easy to build and the cheapest of the items you need. It provides almost every stat you need: AD, cd, lethality, out-of-combat speed. The most important thing is however its active: a speed boost that is not lost while in-combat, allowing you to engage and disengage quickly when assassinating. Before, it was the very first item on every Talon build. However, after they removed the atk speed in the active and Talon's Q stopping being an autoattack enhancer, it lost its untouchable position, as it could not be used anymore to push lanes fast. In fact, while it is recommended, if you are able to get a Duskblade first, it's reccomended to get it instead. However, do remember that the mov. speed boost Yoomuu provides can be a better early choice than duskblade (depends on the enemy team)
Duskblade
If you managed to get a B.F. Sword in laning phase, this item is a better first choice (although it costs more). As far as stats go, it provides AD, lethality and 2 passives, both of them synergizing with Talon's playstyle. First passive gives you sight of nearby traps/wards, making it more difficult for the enemy to track you down (extremely important on Talon, as he needs to not be seen before engaging). Second passive gives you bonus true dmg on your first autoattack when not seen by at least 1 second. Not only this bonus scales on lethality, but it also means that you can proc it twice in a fight thanks to your R
Edge of Night
Basically a Banshee's Veil that instead of giving you health, gives you AD and lethality, at the cost of giving a less reliable shield. About stats, besides the all-needed AD, lethality and out-of-combat mov. speed, it also provides MR, meaning that it is better to get it when against AP champions. However, because of the stats and the shield, it can be a good choice regardless of their dmg composition (its main wanted feature is the possibility to be immune to a single CC ability that can ruin your engage). Remember that it is not advised to channel the shield while invisible, since, although your R lasts 2.5 seconds (channel is 1.5 secs), you can easily end being hit while doing it, putting it on a 5 secs cd
Black Cleaver
This item has always been good on Talon: as a first item, as a lead item, as a back-up/safe item, it doesn't matter. You name a situation, it is always good to get it. The main reason is that it works on stacks and Talon's skillset allows him to stack it to full in less than one second on multiple enemies. Not only that, but it gives you a huge cd reduction, AD, health (which helps you to survive) and a passive that gives you mov. speed when you hit an enemy. If you don't knwo when it is the best to get it, it can be picked when you happen to fight often together with your team and/or when an enemy threat is getting too tanky
For the last items and for alternative ones, these are the usual choices
Death's Dance
AD, cdr and probably 2 of the best passives for Talon: you heal from any kind of physical dmg you inflict, not only from your autoattacks, making you quite resiliant; also, a percentage of the damage you take is delayed for 3 seconds, giving you more time to burst your opponent. It is usually got as one of the last items, since it is more important for Talon to stack lethality/armor pen before getting the healing. However, if you think you may need it, do not get it between your first items: think of it as a third/fourth (excluding boots) choice that can also scale as the last
Infinity Edge
Infinity can make you a nightmare to the enemy team. However, it is MANDATORY to be able to get close-Qs most of the time. As I said before, the close-Q is a spell that crits. While it won't be affected by effects like those from the Essence Reaver, it can be affected by critical modifiers, meaning that instead of dealing 200% dmg, you now deal 250% dmg, while also having 20% critical chance (it's not enough, but a lucky crit can be devastating). However, do remember that this is an option going totally on the offensive side, which requires a good amount of both macro and micro skills: unless you feel REALLY secure about your ability to play Talon, go for safer items
Guardian Angel
Guardian Angel is basically the safest choice Talon can ever get: you sacrifice dmg for armor, MR and a Zilean ultimate. Excellent choice if you find yourself getting always focused while engaging on their squishies. However, do remember that you then need to stay with your team to get the full advantage of the GA, as otherwise you'll most probably end up dead again if you are alone
Mercurial Scimitar
In terms of stats, its AD is a bit more than that provided by Edge of Night, with the same MR and lifesteal, but no lethality. The main reason to actually get this item is for the cleanse against heavy-CC composition. Outside of that, you'd not want to get this
Ravenous Hydra
The veryveryvery last item you'll finish. It is basically a tiamat with better stats, lifesteal and a better cleave. Getting it or not depends mainly if you think you'll need the Cleave for this game or not
Maw of Maltorius
Your go-to when you need both to tank magic dmg and to survive longer fights. Upgrading the Hexdrinker to this gives you a passive that grants bonus AD and lifesteal when the barrier procs (bonus end when you are out-of-combat). However, this item can have a sense ONLY if you're against multiple AP champions, since if they don't deal you magic dmg, both the barrier and the bonuses won't proc
Lord Dominik's Regards/Mortal Reminder
Basically, the items for when you decide to finish your Last Whisper. If the enemy have champions with high sustain, get Mortal. If they have champions with lots of health, but no sustain, get Dominik. If they have both, Mortal is better (unless your ADC gets it; in that case, you can go Dominik)
Dead Man's Plate
If you ever find yourself needing both health and armor, this is a good item. Its passive gives bonus movement speed while also giving you a slow on your next autoattack, meaning that it can actually help landing the second part of the W. Remember however that the only damage you gain is from your first attack only (100 dmg), meaning that while you get hp, armor and utility, you lose in damage. Consider wisely if you need this or not
Finally, there is also a list of the items that I think you should not go for when playing Talon
Any item that gives AP
Talon deals only physical damage and scales only on AD. 'Nuff said
Any mana regeneration item
Mana regeneration is for champions that are in need to spam their abilities. Although Talon is actually mana hungry, he does not need such a thing: you may feel the need that you need it in lane, but out of it, it won't help you at all. You will be better if you learn how to manage his mana instead
Doran's Blade
Multiple reasons: he does not need the lifesteal; he'll waste early gold for better starting items; he has already strong duelling potential in the form of a early-level burst (he won't search for prolonged fights); doesn't build into nothing. You're better with either AD, refillable pots or movement speed
Poacher's Dirk
There are reasons why nobody builds this item. It forces you to play risky (trying to get enemy camps while still not having enough items to get them fast/safely) and even if you get it later in the game, to wait a minimum of 3 minutes to transform it (becoming too slow to beneficiate of it truly). This without even considering that to take enemy camps without risking, your team needs to be ahead. It is better to just go either for Longswords or directly for the Dirk, since it allows also for more flexibility in the build (ex. chaning to Warhammer when needed)
Sheen
Sheen goes well with champions that either have high base dmg, can go tanky or can spam low-cd abilities continuosly. Talon's base dmg is closer to average thank high, he can't afford to build tanky (getting a single tank item on him is highly situational and even then he should be having only one) and he does not have abilities with that much cd to benefit from the passive (without considering that his playstyle consists about unloading all of them as fast as possible) . Also, while this item provides cdr, it doesn't provide any AD and the mana, while useful, is not something you should build
Sterak's Gage
Same story with sheen. Also, passive scales on maximum health, which you won't increase if not with the Black Cleaver. If you really find yourself in need of health, getting an actualy tank item is better
Trinity Force
One of the items with the highest cost in the league, which will provide you everything except what you truly need (you basically truly beneficiate of only half of this item). Also, since it builds on Phage, you'd have then to either waste a passive slot if you get Black Cleaver too or to not get get Black Cleaver at all, which is stupid
Essence Reaver
No. Period
MATCH-UPS
Unless you are a Talon OTP (which frankly I'm somewhat close to it), you won't pick him always. The guide is meant for people who want to play Talon seriously while still not having enough experience. This said, recognizing in which situations you should consider picking him or not and how well you can go against another champion is required for any kind of champion you want to play and/or main
The section will divide itself into 5 sections: champions with which you go well, champions with which you do not go well, champions that you counter, "fair" champions and champions that counter you
Champions with which you go well
Talon is generally played either mid or top. Because of him being an AD assassin, having an AP champion on the other lane is an excellent choice, as in this way opponents cannot itemize effectively for the both of you. Also, Talon thrives in enemy teams lacking coordination, meaning that champions that either provide AoE disables or that can force the enemy team to remain separated is good
  • For top lane when you're mid, champions like Kennen, Maokai, Rumble and so on
  • For mid lane when you're top, others like Brand, Orianna, Veigar, Ziggs and so on
About junglers, as long as you have a difference in type of damage between mid and top, both AD and AP champions can go. However, do remember that in case you end up having both lanes running an AD champion, an AP jungler is heavily suggested
Going on, Talon works best with junglers (but also laners) that can engage on enemies while bringing a lot of CC, since he can then back it up with his high burst without getting focused. Also, junglers that can set up good early ganks are appreciated as well, since they can help you gain the lead you need. Junglers that can do both are the best
  • For CC junglers, champions like Nautilus and Malphite
  • For good ganks junglers, champions like Lee Sin, Xin Zhao and Ivern
  • For both, champions like Ranmus, Zac and Sejuani
......................
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